Saturday, July 16, 2005

┬┐Going short?

Safe Haven | DJIA Timing System Going Short
Out of all the rallies we have been witnessing over the last 18 months, this latest rally from last Thursday seems to be one of the weakest rallies among them. First of all, this rally started from an overbought condition - and second of all, I am now seeing divergences everywhere and very bullish sentiment among retail investors (as an aside, the AAII Survey is now showing 58% bulls and 14% bears - a Bulls-Bears% differential of 44%) thinking that we are already at the "blow off stage" - despite the fact that the market never got too oversold in mid April and despite the fact that we are still seeing very dismal volume on all the exchanges.
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