Thursday, August 11, 2005

Four Gaps

Bill Cara: A market under promotion, Wed., August 10, 2005, 1:48 PM.

The four consecutive gap openings to the upside indicate to me that Big Money is distributing stocks.

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Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Embargo

FSO Transcription - Matthew R. Simmons "Twilight in the Desert"- August 6, 2005

What I came up with was finding that there are about 120 oil fields in the world that still produced over 100,000 bpd, and that they collectively were 49% of the world’s oil supply. What I also found is that the top 14 fields that still produce over 500,000 bpd each, were 20% of the world’s oil supply, and on average they were 53 years old.

..

And obviously it’s cheap. I don’t know what’s the next cheapest liquid we actually sell in any bulk is, that has any value. I suspect there are places around the United States where municipal water costs more than 18 cents a pint. And yet for some reason, we created a society that was built on a belief that oil prices in a normal range were some place in the $15-20 level. It turns out $15/barrel, which is the average price of oil – in 2004 dollars – it sold for, for the last 140 years, is less than 4 cents a pint. So we’ve basically used up the vast majority of the world’s high flow rate, high quality sweet oil at prices that were effectively so cheap, you basically couldn’t sustain an industry. And now we’re left with lots of oil. But it’s heavy, gunky, dirty, sour, contaminated with various things oil, it doesn’t come out of the ground very fast, is very energy intensive to get out of the ground and we’re going to pay a fortune for it.

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Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Blame the government

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They said it could not happen

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When -1.200.000 means +207.000

Mortgate rates won't stay this for long Before adjustments for the season, there were 134.7 million jobs in the U.S. during June. But the number of jobs fell to 133.5 million before seasonal adjustments in July.
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¿A bet?

Inside Buffet's Buck Bet
Warren Buffett's first half $926 million loss from betting against the dollar is among the most misunderstood gambits the billionaire has ever taken, according to one Buffett-watcher.

James Altucher, a hedge fund manager and author of "Trade Like Warren Buffett," argues that many have misinterpreted the true meaning of the position.

"Buffett has the bet on because he is long billions in dollar-denominated assets," said Altucher.
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10%

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Zero Savings

The Big Picture: U.S. Savings Rate = 0%
"The nation's paucity of savings is raising alarms from the Federal Reserve to consumer watchdogs who worry that the nation is counting on foreign savings to maintain a spendthrift lifestyle. Some groups are cranking up advertising campaigns to try to remind Americans that they don't need to participate in every sale.

And there are now high-level suggestions that the tax system needs to be changed to encourage savings instead of spending."
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Monday, August 08, 2005

Overinvesting

MSN Money - Extra: A housing boom built on folly
What accounts for the housing boom? Economists have cited a number of fundamental factors, including low interest rates, favorable demographics, and restrictions on development. But the unappreciated force that may have infected a strong housing market with home-buying mania is bad tax policy. Specifically, I mean the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997, signed by President Clinton.

Under a set of easily met limitations -- mainly that a home has been a primary residence for two out of the past five years -- a family can exempt the first $500,000 in profit on the sale of the home from capital-gains taxes. The comparable figure for a single filer is $250,000.
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Please, go out quietly

Market WrapUp with Martin Goldberg 08/04/2005
There is a fair amount of good discussion in various media outlets suggesting that the stock market may be in a final phase of a speculative blow off.
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Thursday, August 04, 2005

Protect yourself

Everybody Loses
Why did government begin to inflate? To pay off debts, and cancel a deficit budget, of course! That's why it always begins. It is always just a "temporary" matter, till things get straight. Most economists today believe that about 2-3% inflation each year, is necessary, to keep the economy going, and to "increase purchasing power." In other words, today's economists actually believe that the printing press can create wealth and prosperity. This is totally untrue, because inflation only creates a gambling society, or a society which basses its wealth on speculation, not production. Inflation, actually makes true prosperity much more difficult to obtain, and more accurately…impossible.
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