Saturday, October 29, 2005

Shangai fly

My fly on the wall in Shanghai
The real estate bubble seems to have burst, though I think the fundamentals are rather bullish. As I have heard a lot about real estate in the news etc half a year ago, and then about prices going down and not much anymore (good time to look for potential buys I suppose, as people are not interested in real estate anymore), the sentiment was speculative.

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Rare events

Profiting from the Unexpected
FAR-OUT BETS. Taleb calls such unanticipated events "black swans," in reference to philosopher Karl Popper's observation that just because you've seen 100 white swans doesn't mean that a black swan doesn't exist. "My basic message is, don't cross the river if it's an average of four feet deep."

Thursday, October 20, 2005

Why Savers Are Losers

Why Savers Are Losers: Why the Rich Get Richer
In spite of all these increases in prices, the federal government's economists say, "Inflation is low. It's under control." They are allowed to say that because the government is charged with only monitoring inflation in consumer prices -- not asset prices.

Should You Leave It All to them

Magazine - Should You Leave It All to the - FORTUNE - Page
Of 30 multimillionaires recently surveyed by FORTUNE, six say their children will be better off with only minimal inheritances. Almost half plan to leave at least as much to charity as to their heirs. In an area where almost no research exists, Alexander Sanger, a partner with the law firm White & Case in New York, offers a revealing statistic. Of 20 wills Sanger has drawn up for newly wealthy parents with net worths of $20 million or more, 16 left at least half the estates to charity. Of 12 comparable old-money estates, only one gave so much away.

Losing everything in a week

Watching a $4 billion company fall apart in a week. By Daniel Gross
Refco was a model 21st-century business—a highly digitized, high-tech services company that traded complicated financial instruments on behalf of customers all over the globe. But its meltdown shows that its real assets were not its New Economy algorithms and brainpower. Rather, this extremely modern company depended ultimately on the kind of assets that built American capitalism in the 19th century: trust, integrity, and the personal reputation of executives.


Deurbanization: Then & Now
And driving several miles to a big supermarket will of course also present problems, since few people will have cars. Many people will want to grow their own food, or at least be close to places where food is readily available at decent prices. This means a flight to the country, as cities become more and more expensive to maintain.

Monday, October 17, 2005

The Next Leader

Power Shifts!
China is now the 7th largest economy in the world and worth US$1.4 trillion dollars. However, adjusted for differences in purchasing power, the Chinese economy is already the 2 nd largest and over 60% of the size of the US economy.

After elections

The Kirk Report : Performance During Post-Election Years
Based on this historical reference, it would appear the best times to be long the Dow is between March through May, July through August, and November through December.

Non-traditional mortgages.

Housing market teetering towards a collapse
By all indications, the housing market has entered the final stage of its boom and will soon experience the usual bubblenomics crack-up. We see this quite clearly if we glance at the loan market, where lenders are recklessly pushing risky loans to keep the market going.

Wednesday, October 12, 2005


Need a big edge? Use the 200-day MA wisely

he market took another hit today as the indices extended their recent selloffs. Friday’s attempted bounce was a complete dud. The market remains extremely oversold, so hopefully the next bounce attempt will be a bit stronger. The S&P has now closed below its 200-day moving average three days in a row. No doubt you will be hearing lots of talk about the 200-day moving average…which leads me to today’s topic.

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

¿Need a credit card?

Debt: consumers juggle burden

Many households have far more plastic than you could fit in a wallet. The average number of bank cards per cardholding household is 19.3 -- typically eight bank cards, eight retail cards and three debit cards.


Trading less can mean profiting more

Sitting on your hands is an excellent way to trade the markets during periods of noise and conflict. It's also a strong discipline that works well for traders who are addicted to the price action and adrenaline rush it generates each day.

Thursday, October 06, 2005


ContraHour: The Pain of Gain - Dealing With Making Money In the Markets
Staying with the trend is at least as important, if not more important, than identifying the turn. If you can't stay on board, what's the point of the exercise of trying to identify the change in trend? Of course, some folks like to prove how smart they are, while others prefer to simply make money.

-- Jeff Cooper

Monday, October 03, 2005

Paper risk

Paper Trading: Waste of Time or Valid Learning Method? by Vadym Graifer
Numerous discussions of paper trading, and its value as a learning tool, usually see participants divided into two camps. One claims total uselessness of paper trading, another vows never to start without it. The scoffing camp points out the obvious limitations of paper trading:
It doesn’t allow you to estimate slippage during your execution.
It leaves unanswered the question of whether your order has a chance to be executed at all.
It keeps you in a relatively relaxed state of mind as there is no pressure of endangering real money.
It also doesn’t allow you to master your order routing tools in full.
Finally, it’s very easy to cheat oneself, changing one’s decision after the fact and booking corrected results.