Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Rare events

Profiting from the Unexpected
FAR-OUT BETS. Taleb calls such unanticipated events "black swans," in reference to philosopher Karl Popper's observation that just because you've seen 100 white swans doesn't mean that a black swan doesn't exist. "My basic message is, don't cross the river if it's an average of four feet deep."